[Domestic News]Mysteel Analysis: August Soybean and Soybean Meal Customs Data Analysis and Future Outlook

1、Soybean (5011, -52.00, -1.03%) Imports

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports in August 2023 reached 9.36 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.7%. However, this figure was a decrease of 370,000 tons compared to July, marking a month-on-month decline of 3.8%. Additionally, from January to August 2023, China's cumulative soybean imports reached 71.66 million tons, an increase of 10.33 million tons compared to the same period last year, representing a growth rate of 16.9%.

In this regard, Brazil continued to maintain its position as the largest supplier for the month, with soybean imports from Brazil totaling 9.0864 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.55% compared to the previous month but an increase of 45.49% year-on-year. The quantity of soybeans imported from Brazil in the month nearly accounted for the entire soybean arrivals in China in August, which totaled 9.3619 million metric tons, due to Brazil's record soybean harvest and competitive prices. Data indicates that China imported a total of 47.9966 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil from January to August 2023, marking a 17.28% increase compared to the same period last year.

In the current month, Russia continues to be the second largest supplier, while the United States is the third largest supplier. Imports of soybeans from the United States in the same month amounted to only 120,100 tons, a decrease of 15.53% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 58.31% compared to the same period last year. August remains a low season for soybean exports from the United States, and due to tight supplies of aged soybeans in the United States before the September harvest of new soybeans, prices also lack competitiveness. Data shows that from January to August 2023, China imported 19.9753 million tons of soybeans from the United States, a 9.68% increase compared to the same period last year when it was 18.212 million tons.

In addition, in August, China's imports of soybeans from Argentina amounted to only 0.04 thousand tons, a month-on-month decrease of 99.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 99.82%. Data shows that from January to August 2023, China's soybean imports from Argentina totaled 1.5475 million tons, compared to 459.9 thousand tons during the same period last year, representing an increase of 236.51%.

2. Regarding the import and export of soybean meal (3933, -11.00, -0.28%).

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the import volume of soybean meal in China in August 2023 was 1,920.2 tons, an increase of 897.2 tons compared to July 2023, with a month-on-month growth rate of 87.7%. Compared to the same period last year, there was a decrease of 2,701.49 tons, a year-on-year reduction of 58.45%. In addition, from January to August 2023, China's cumulative import of soybean meal was 27,460.88 tons, a decrease of 11,374.857 tons compared to the same period last year, representing a decrease of 29.29%.

Looking at specific regions, in August, China's imports of soybean meal came primarily from two countries, Denmark and Russia. In August, China imported 1,520.2 tons of soybean meal from Denmark, accounting for 79% of the total, while 400 tons were imported from Russia, making up 21%.

In August 2023, the provinces and municipalities in China that imported soybean meal were Shandong, Liaoning, and Shanghai. Among them, Shandong imported 1,498 tons of soybean meal, accounting for 78%; Liaoning imported 400 tons of soybean meal, accounting for 21%; Shanghai imported 22.2 tons of soybean meal, accounting for 1%.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of soybean meal in China in August 2023 was 78,367.445 tons, a decrease of 128,953.133 tons compared to July 2023, with a month-on-month decrease of 62.2%; an increase of 57,004.027 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 266.83%. From January to August 2023, China's cumulative soybean meal exports reached 695,442.71 tons, an increase of 305,312.82 tons compared to the same period last year, representing a growth rate of 78.26%.

Looking at specific regions, in August, China's main countries for soybean meal exports were Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, and 16 other countries. Among these, soybean meal exports to Japan amounted to 63,509.06 tons, accounting for 81%; exports to South Korea were 5,548.95 tons, accounting for 7%; and exports to the Netherlands were 4,233.937 tons, accounting for 5%.

In August 2023, the main provinces and regions in China exporting soybean meal were Jiangsu, Hunan, Fujian, and 12 other provinces and autonomous regions. Among them, Jiangsu exported 17,648.48 tons of soybean meal, accounting for 22%; Hunan exported 17,062.95 tons of soybean meal, also accounting for 22%; and Fujian exported 14,270.84 tons of soybean meal, representing 18% of the total.

According to Mysteel statistics, in September 2023, a total estimated volume of approximately 7.41 million metric tons of soybeans is expected to arrive at ports from 123 major oilseed crushing plants in various regions of China. Preliminary estimates for soybean shipments to ports for October 2023 stand at 6 million metric tons, and for November 2023, it is estimated to be 8.8 million metric tons. Currently, the new crop of soybeans in the United States has commenced harvesting, with a harvest rate of 5% as of the week ending September 17, 2023, exceeding market expectations. For reference, during the same period last year, it was 3%, and the five-year average is 4%. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the planting of the 2023/24 soybean crop has begun, and as of September 22, it has reached 2.3% of the planned planting area, which is higher than the figure from one week ago and also exceeds the levels of the same period last year and historical averages. Further monitoring is required for the progress of the soybean harvest in the United States, sales trends, and weather conditions in Brazil's major soybean-producing regions in the coming weeks.

Source：Systeel